(This article was written by Socialist Appeal's Editorial Board after the ousting of Benazir Bhutto in October 1996. For an analysis on the recent military coup in Pakistan see: Pakistan: military rule once again)
The "constitutional" coup in Pakistan underlines the nature of the Pakistan regime as a regime of crisis. It is a graphic expression of the impasse of all the regimes of the ex colonial countries. Economic crisis, mass unemployment and underemployment, inflation, financial bankruptcy, and complete subjugation to world imperialism—these are the hallmarks of the situation.
The merciless pressure of imperialism, exercised through the IMF, compels these regimes to carry out vicious attacks on the living standards of the masses. Under the pretext of "liberalisation and free trade" they are forced to dismantle protection and privatise, leading to the collapse of national industry. At the same time, there is unprecedented corruption, the rich become richer. Ministers loot the state and engage in unrestrained plunder, while carrying out a ruthless policy of austerity for the mass of workers, peasants and shopkeepers.
The crisis in Pakistan is very deep. For a long time, Pakistan has been virtually bankrupt. For three years, the PPP government has been carrying out the policies of the IMF, which demanded that Benazir should go after the "defaulters", that is the large number of people involved in the black economy, which now accounts for a staggering 120% of the official economy. Drug dealers and others involved in the black economy have penetrated the Army and the State at high levels. In fact, it is only large amounts of this black money which keeps the economy afloat. Any attempt to move against this sector would meet with ferocious resistance. In the same way, Benazir's timid attempt to tax the feudal landowners also pushed them into opposition.
The military has ruled Pakistan a total of 24 years in its 49 years since independence. One of the immediate causes of the present coup was Benazir's refusal to grant the Army's request for 8 billion rupees in military expenditure. It is clear that the generals were involved in the coup, although, in order to avoid an open conflict with the USA, they used the services of the president Farooq Leghari as a "constitutional" fig leaf.
It appears that Benazir has got out of touch with reality. In her haste to implement the cuts dictated by the IMF, she held a special Cabinet meeting on the night of the 4th of November, at which it was decided that all Army officers above grade 19 (that is all the higher echelons) would have their assets scrutinised by a committee. This was tantamount to a provocation. However, it is clear that the IMF was already planning to ditch Benazir. Leghari had a meeting with the IMF on Sunday November 3. It is probable that the president informed them about his intentions.
After three years in government, Benazir Bhutto has succeeded in disillusioning the masses who supported her. This is the fate of all reformist governments, East and West, under conditions of capitalist crisis. Whereas her father Zulfikar Ali Bhutto carried out important reforms under the pressure of the mass movement, Benazir has carried out a policy of counter reforms. On a capitalist basis, no other policy is possible. From the beginning, having capitulated to the pressures of imperialism, big business and the Army, she has carried out a policy in their interests. Now we see the result.
In addition to a profound economic and social crisis, there is universal corruption, affecting the highest levels of the PPP, especially the clique around Benazir's husband Asif Ali Zardari, who has already been tried for corruption and acquitted. Corruption is a way of life for such elements as this. This provides an excuse for reactionaries to act against the PPP government, although corruption has been a feature of all Pakistani governments and leaders.
The crisis of society is shown by the catastrophic situation in Karachi, which is a state of complete lawlessness, with murders being committed every day, as members of the MQM and different fundamentalist groups slaughter each other. An important turning point was the murder in September of Murtaza Bhutto, the prime minister's brother, who had organised a left wing opposition PPP, with a strong base in Sindh. Murtaza's widow has blamed Zardari for the murder. Benazir has hinted that Farooq Leghari was responsible. This fact, in addition to a struggle to control the judiciary, were also cited by the president as reasons for dismissing the government. The coup took place one day after a court decission to reinstate Punjab's chief minister and Muslim League leader, Manzoor Wattoo.
The president accused Bhutto's government of fostering corruption, undermining the judiciary and failing to stop extra judicial killings in Karachi and elsewhere:
"Corruption, nepotism and violation of rules in the administration of the affairs of the government... has become so extensive and widespread that the orderly functioning of government in accordance of the provisions of the constitution and the law has become impossible and in some cases, national security has been endangered. "Public faith in the integrity and honesty of the government has disappeared," he said in a proclamation.
It is clear that Leghari acted in agreement with the Army, which immediately occupied the airports, and guarded the TV and radio stations. Troops moved into the capital Islamabad in the early hours to guard key installations, but stayed off the streets.
At this moment in time, there is no indication of any protest movements. The apathy of the masses is determined by three years of counter reforms, privatisation and attacks on living standards. Widespread corruption scandals have given rise to apathy and even cynicism about politics. Benazir's support has dwindled. Zardari is hated by the masses. The PPP is in disarray. The streets remained calm, apart from a few firecrackers let off by celebrating shopkeepers. Schools and businesses opened as usual. The reaction of the middle class is not surprising, since the government increased the taxes on small businesses, thus pushing them into the arms of fundamentalist reaction.
In Rawalpindi, about 200 opposition party supporters fired assault rifles into the air to celebrate Bhutto's downfall. Witnesses said they grabbed a traffic policeman and hoisted him onto their shoulders in jubilation. Mobile telephone services were disconnected overnight. Home telephones of Bhutto's cabinet ministers were out of service.
In order to deflect international criticism, and avoid a conflict with Washington, Leghari has promised elections in February. According to the Constitution, general elections must be held within three months. Leghari would like to split the PPP. For this reason, he included former PPP leaders in the new government. In addition, with the agreement of the Supreme Court judges, he is introducing a Law of "accountability", which will mean that all key figures will be investigated, and made "accountable". With this excuse, he may postpone the elections. Meanwhile, there would be a government of "technocrats" which would carry out the dictates of the IMF and the World Bank, which also have representatives in the government appointed by Leghari.
At this stage, it is not absolutely clear that this will happen. If there is a big mass movement, Leghari might introduce a state of emergency (also a "constitutional" measure) and postpone the elections. But it is possible that they will hold the elections, and rig them to ensure the formation of a reactionary government.
If Murtaza Bhutto were alive, he could have acted as a pole of attraction. Probably for that very reason, he was assassinated. This tends to support the theory that Leghari was behind the murder. It is clear that the coup was prepared well in advance, and Leghari did not want to leave a possibly dangerous rival.
The coup will not solve the problems of Pakistan capitalism, but will only aggravate them. The first problem is—who will replace Bhutto? Leghari has acted cautiously, appointing an 80 year old ex PPP man (a founding member of the party and former Chief Minister of Punjab in the Z. Ali Bhutto government), Meraj Khalid, as caretaker prime minister. This is intended as another way of defusing a popular reaction. A former speaker of the National Assembly, Khalid is presented as "Mr. Clean".
The fundamentalist opposition has attempted to pose as an alternative, organising a mass rally last month, which was dispersed by the police. US imperialism does not want a fundamentalist government in Islamabad. It has quite enough problems with Iran, not to mention Afghanistan. An Afghan type regime in Islamabad would mean the break up of Pakistan, a horrifying prospect not only for the masses, but also for imperialism.
For the same reason, Washington does not want an open military dictatorship in Pakistan, which is why the Army generals preferred to move in this way. Nevertheless, the regime that emerges, even if elections are held, will be only a "democratic" fig leaf for the Army generals and the feudal land owners.
The reaction of imperialism has been typically hypocritical. The IMF and Western governments are reported to be content with the dismissal of Bhutto. An International Monetary Fund official said a visiting IMF mission would pursue talks with the new government on reactivation of a $600 million standby loan.
The blasé tone of Western commentators showed that they were unconcerned, and clearly had advance warning. "It's not surprising," one European diplomat said of her dismissal. "It had looked as if she might go any time." He said international reaction was likely to be muted. "For Western governments, the attitude will probably be that any change of government that happens constitutionally and peacefully is not really their business," he predicted. Britain said on Tuesday that the dismissal of Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto's government was entirely a matter for Pakistan.
"Our understanding is that President Leghari has acted in accord with the constitution in dismissing the national assembly and the government," a Foreign Office spokesman said.
"This is entirely a matter for Pakistan and we have no comment to make. We shall of course deal normally with the caretaker government of Meraj Khalid," he added.
Particularly nauseating was the reaction of the Labour leaders, who merely echoed the standpoint of imperialism. British shadow foreign secretary Robin Cook said serious problems, including economic chaos and rows over the judiciary and corruption, had marred Bhutto's administration.
"Obviously the interest of the international community is that the election commitment be honoured and that the agreement with the IMF (International Monetary Fund) be maintained," he declared.
This position represents a complete capitulation to reaction. It is true that the government of Benazir Bhutto was corrupt, and that its policies led to economic chaos. But the policies of right reformism, which Robin Cook defends, always prepare disasters. Reformism without reforms—reformism with counter reforms—will inevitably pave the way for reaction, not only in Pakistan, but in Britain and everywhere else.
As for the IMF, its policies (as usual) were directly responsible for the economic and social chaos which led to the coup. Now, like Pontius Pilate, they piously wash their hands of the fate of Benazir Bhutto, despite the fact that she was a loyal stooge of imperialism. Since this was a "constitutional" coup, they are happy to throw her to the wolves!
But how can a coup which overthrows a democratically elected government be constitutional? The apathy of the masses was because of the PPP government. But once they realise what has happened, they will begin to draw the conclusion that every time they elect a leader of their choice, he or she is removed by a coup, either of a military or "constitutional" kind. Far reaching consequences will flow from this.
These events open up a new and convulsive period in Pakistan society and politics. After an initial period of disorientation, critical moods will develop. The PPP may split. In fact, elements of a split are already present, with the defection of a layer of leaders. Others will follow. It is not clear what will happen to Benazir. She has already taken the precaution of purchasing a 2.5 million pounds house in the South of England—a very desirable place in which to retire. However, things may not prove so simple.
If, as seems probable, Zardari is put on trial, this time he will not get off so lightly. With the hated Zardari out of the way, and separated from the most corrupt PPP leaders, Benazir's popularity can recover. If she remains in politics, the only way she can get back her lost support is by turning to the left, at least in words.
The new government, whether elected or not, will pursue a vicious policy of attacks on living standards. The IMF and the World Bank will insist on their pound of flesh. The Army and the landowners will insist that this is not extracted from them. Consequently, the full burden of the crisis will be placed on the shoulders of the masses even more than before. At a certain stage, this can give rise to a social explosion. Under these circumstances, big opportunities will open up for the Pakistan Marxists.