Pakistan: the growing discontent of the masses after one year of military rule...

Another General has completed another year of despotic military rule in Pakistan and the army has exposed itself even further.  A new wave of state repression is beginning to unfold, exhibiting the desperation of the Generals in their failure to solve anything. The patience of the masses is rapidly wearing thin. All the outlets for venting their anger and frustrations have been blocked. This means that the rage of the masses is building up very fast. The more their outburst is delayed the greater will be the explosion.

Another General has completed another year of despotic military rule in Pakistan and the army has exposed itself even further. The heated debate over the Hamud-ur-Rehman report (an inquiry commission set up in 1972 to analyse the causes of the historic defeat of the Pakistan army in East Bengal in 1971) is going on. The military generals are hell-bent on declaring it a state secret, whereas "India Today" has published it and now it is accessible on the Internet.

The masses had hardly recovered from the shock of the atrocities perpetrated by the Pakistan Army, documented in this report, when allegations of corruption against the chairman of the NAB (National Accountability Bureau), General Amjad, opened another Pandora's box. It has been alleged that he accepted a huge amount of bribery and has secret accounts. When this charge was refuted, another accusation against this very general came up. He had received a commercial plot of land for Rs100,000 and had then sold it for Rs10 million. Initially, this charge was also rebutted, but later on General Amjad was removed from his post and the Lahore corps commander, General Khalid Maqbool was appointed in his place. But even before taking up that position, General Khalid himself has also been accused of even more corruption.

The masses of Pakistan remained indifferent to the elections of 1997. According to official statistics only 26 percent voted. But now the military regime is making an even greater mess. The Musharraf dictatorship has miserably failed to retrieve loans and implement accountability, salvage the economy, stabilise society, reduce crime or stop the continuous fall of the population below the poverty line. Custodial killings have increased and even the imperialists are calling Pakistan a failed state with nuclear weapons. But a failed state is not necessarily a dead state. A new wave of state repression is beginning to unfold, exhibiting the desperation of the Generals in their failure to solve anything.

Economy on the verge of collapse

It has been admitted by General Pervaiz Musharraf himself that Pakistan has to find US$5 billion to pay the interest on the debt for 2001. But the treasury has a meagre US$1.15 billion of foreign exchange reserves. When he was asked from where this amount will be generated, General Musharraf declared that he did not have to answer this question. In other words, Pakistan will default next year on the payment. But some economists are of the opinion that Pakistan has already technically defaulted. Besides the repayment of loans, Pakistan needs US$3 billion to fill trade deficit gap. Half of these foreign reserves cannot be utilised because they do not belong to the government. The international financial institutions are not ready to give Pakistan either loans or aid, as Pakistan has not fulfilled their conditions. Only the Asian Development Bank has pledged US$80 million for three projects. Therefore dollars are rapidly disappearing in the open market. The Rupee is going down rapidly. The exchange rate is 64 rupees to US$1, up by 20 percent since last year.

On the one side, the price of oil has increased and it has affected imports into Pakistan, and the trade deficit has risen. This is accompanied by growing inflation. Increases in transport costs are hitting the poor hard. The life of a common man is already much worse than a year ago. When the economy defaults, all life will come to a standstill. But the international financial institutions will not want this to happen as it would have a domino effect throughout the region. They will assist Pakistan with just the right amount to avoid the economy going into a total collapse. At present, Pakistan is looking to the IMF as a last resort which will issue the SDRs from US$400 to US$800 million. This amount could only be used for the servicing of loans. In other words, Pakistan will get nothing. This situation can prove very devastating for the ruling generals.

On the diplomatic level, Pakistan is in a state of isolation. The European Union has also refused to review the economic agreements. Pervaiz Musharraf had to face humiliation in the Millennium session of the UNO. The Bangladeshi prime minister, Hasina Wajid, throughout her speech, attacked the army of Pakistan and its role in the 1971 war in East Bengal, which disgraced Musharraf.

The regime is in a severe crisis and lurching from one blunder to another. It has surrendered to the international financial institutions in such a humiliating way, which is unprecedented in the history of Pakistan. At the same time, fundamentalist resurgence is rocking the boat. The tumour of the black economy is decaying the state from within and creating contradictions which threaten to break up the state from within, culminating in a civil war.

Many other hidden issues have come to the forefront. There could be revolts within the army itself leading to another coup. The national question could end up in a bloody conflagration.

There is intense hatred of America and the IMF in Pakistani society which could blow out at any moment. This can be used by fundamentalism both within and outside the army. International pressure for restoration of democracy is rising. Musharraf is talking about introducing a new local authority system under the so-called devolution plan. However these local elections would be on a non-party basis. Like his predecessors, General Ayub Khan and General Zia-ul-Haq, he is trying to use this facade to perpetuate his rule.

How ridiculous it is that the person who has accumulated more power than anybody else in the history of Pakistan, talks about the devolution of power. With the oligarchy of finance capital and the crushing domination of the world market any devolution of power is a sick joke. The proposed local authorities would be divided into district assemblies, Tehsil councils and Union councils. These authorities would be directly under the supervision of central government. Suspicions are being expressed by the small provinces and oppressed nationalities because the little rights the small provinces do have now would have to come to an end. Almost all the political parties have rejected this formula. Reactionary tendencies like sectarianism (the caste system) and communalism will come to the fore. So, these elections will usher in deterioration and disorder rather than stability.

The real rulers, the state bureaucracy, will remain. The same would apply to the police. Leaving aside the chief of police, all other police officers would not be subordinate to public representatives. However it remains to be seen whether this plan will ever see the light of day.

The leadership of the PPP

The leadership of the People's Party is terrified by the radicalised mood expressed by the workers at the Lahore convention. In reality, the leadership of People's Party has become the blind agent of capital trying to help maintain the status quo, but they will either have to go back to the founding socialist programme of the party or perish. The violence, bloodshed and conflagration in Kashmir continues unabated. Once again for the fourth time Pakistan is on the brink of war with India. But this war would be so devastating, that the states could collapse as a consequence of it.

One year of General Musharraf's rule of so-called "Liberal dictatorship" has only brought more misery and suffering to the ordinary people of Pakistan. The regime is as confused and nervous as one year ago, perhaps even more so. They have solved nothing and this in a situation where they faced no resistance. They had all possible powers to do whatever they chose to do.

The "liberal democratic" bourgeois politicians can only repent for what they did. They have no credibility left to face the people whom they deceived, betrayed and exploited through their 11 years of democratic farce. The fundamentalists are involved in a bloody internecine conflict and are devoid of a mass basis.

The masses are bewildered and in a state of shock. Their political indifference is a thin veneer covering the deep disgruntlement and burning desire for retribution for what these rulers have done to them in the last five decades. Their patience is rapidly wearing thin. All the outlets for venting their anger and frustrations have been blocked. This means that the rage of the masses is building up very fast.

The more their outburst is delayed the greater will be the explosion. It is bound to occur sooner or later. When it comes it will wash away even the most remote relics of the past and this exploitative system. But when it comes it will need a clear programme, perspective and a party to guide it to its ultimate destiny of the emancipation of the working masses. The forces of revolutionary Marxism are small but committed and solid. The revolt of the oppressed will also transform these Marxist forces into a mass force and dialectically this force will lead the movement of the workers, peasants, youth, women and the exploited strata of society to their final victory - Socialist Revolution.

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